Older Hdb Flat Prices Converge %E2%80%94 Larger Units Prime Estates Still Command Premium
Is it time to be concerned about the performance of older HDB flats in different locations?
In last week’s analysis, we explored the issue of lease decay for HDB flats. This week, we will delve further into the topic by examining the performance of older HDB flats in various locations using a similar panel analysis methodology that combines both time-series and cross-sectional data.
To control for the impact of building height on transaction prices, the upper bound of prices was excluded. This is because higher-floor flats typically command higher prices, which may distort the average transaction price upward.
For instance, flats in Jurong West generally have a building height of up to 10 storeys, while those in Bukit Merah, Kallang and Whampoa, Queenstown and Toa Payoh can have a building height of up to 20 storeys. Assuming that there is a price difference of $5,000 per floor, this could result in a difference of up to $50,000 between the prices of flats in these higher-rise areas and those in Jurong West.
As such, the analysis primarily focuses on the lower bound of transaction prices.
The first HDB flats that were sold under the Home Ownership for the People Scheme were mostly situated in central areas such as Bukit Merah, Kallang, Whampoa, Queenstown and Toa Payoh. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
Does location matter when it comes to lease decay?
In the early years, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) did not sell the flats it built. However, with the implementation of the Home Ownership for the People Scheme in 1964, this changed. The first HDB flats sold under this scheme were mostly located in central areas such as Bukit Merah, Kallang, Whampoa, Queenstown and Toa Payoh.
The market was further liberalized in 1971 when HDB allowed flat owners to sell their units in the resale market after they had fulfilled the Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). At the time, HDB priced its flats differently depending on whether they were located in urban areas, suburban estates, or new towns.
Fast forward to today, is there a significant discrepancy in flat prices across different locations over the past decade?
Based on the analysis from 2015 to 2025, flats that were built between 1966 and 1970 were, on average, around 51 years old.
During this period, two-room flats in mature estates were transacted for between $150,000 and $185,000, while those in non-mature estates were transacted at approximately $175,000. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
For the period of analysis from 2015 to 2025, flats with leases commencing between 1966 and 1970 had an average age of around 51 years.
During this period, two-room flats in mature estates were transacted for between $150,000 and $185,000, while those in non-mature estates were transacted at approximately $175,000.
Although the volume of transactions for two-room flats in non-mature estates was low, it is worth noting that there was little price differentiation between the different locations. For instance, centrally-located estates such as Geylang and Toa Payoh did not command significantly higher prices than Jurong West, despite being closer to the city centre. One possible explanation for this is that the two-room flats in Geylang and Toa Payoh are slightly older than those in Jurong West, which could account for the lower prices.
For three-room flats, prices ranged from $170,000 to $200,000 in mature estates, while transactions in non-mature estates ranged from $175,000 to $200,000. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
Similarly, for three-room flats, prices ranged from $170,000 to $200,000 in mature estates, while transactions in non-mature estates ranged from $175,000 to $200,000. Once again, there was little price differentiation between mature and non-mature estates. The prices in centrally located areas like Geylang and Toa Payoh were comparable to those in Jurong West, a non-mature estate further from the city centre. Again, the slightly older age of the flats in Geylang and Toa Payoh could account for their relatively lower prices. Notably, while the three-room flats in Jurong East are the oldest among those studied, prices may have been boosted by the future Pandan Reservoir MRT Station.
In the case of larger flats, four-room units were transacted for between $302,000 and $503,000, while five-room flats were transacted for between $330,000 and $636,000. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
For larger flats, four-room units were transacted for between $302,000 and $503,000, while five-room flats were transacted for between $330,000 and $636,000. In the case of four-room flats, flats in Bukit Merah and Queenstown were priced similarly, at around $350,000. However, the limited number of transactions for both four-room and five-room flats made it difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions about pricing trends in these segments.
The key finding in this analysis is that the prices of two-room and three-room flats were relatively similar across different parts of the island. Any slight fluctuations in prices may be attributed to factors such as longer remaining lease tenures or better transport infrastructure.
Flats with leases commencing from 1971 to 1980
In the case of flats with leases starting between 1971 and 1980, the average age during the study period was 43 years. Flats in Bishan, Bukit Timah, Kallang and Whampoa, Marine Parade, Toa Payoh and Queenstown were relatively older, at around 46 years. Meanwhile, those in Ang Mo Kio, Choa Chu Kang, Clementi, Jurong East and Pasir Ris were relatively younger, at around 41 years.
Two-room flats
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For two-room flats, average selling prices ranged from $160,000 to $220,000, depending on the location. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
In the case of two-room flats, average selling prices were between $160,000 and $220,000, depending on the location.
For example, prices of two-room flats in Jurong West, a non-mature estate, were similar to those in mature estates such as Ang Mo Kio, Bedok, Bukit Merah, Marine Parade and Toa Payoh.
Three-room flats
Similarly, for three-room flats, prices ranged from $140,000 to $300,000. There was a sharp contrast in prices between Bukit Timah, the Central Area, and Marine Parade compared to the rest of the island. This was mainly due to scarcity. Another factor that may have contributed to higher prices in these areas includes the upcoming Farrer Road MRT Station, which may have boosted prices in Bukit Timah. It is also worth noting that the Central Area commands a significant premium because of its city-centre location, while Marine Parade benefits from its proximity to the sea, along with the opening of the Thomson-East Coast Line stations.
Interestingly, there were minimal price differences between three-room flats in other mature and non-mature estates. Geylang and Toa Payoh seemed to underperform compared to some non-mature estates despite a similar age profile.
Four-room flats
The resale prices of four-room flats hovered around the $300,000 range across many estates, with a few exceptions that stood out. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
In the case of four-room flats, the resale prices were around the $300,000 range across many estates, with a few exceptions that stood out. For example, Bukit Timah, the Central Area and Marine Parade tended to command higher prices compared to the rest of the island. This was once again due to scarcity. Similarly to the three-room flat segment, flats in Queenstown also saw higher prices due to their proximity to Holland Village and the Holland Village MRT Station, which opened in 2011. Furthermore, according to the analysis, a cluster of flats along Lorong Lew Lian recorded substantially higher prices. This could be attributed to the limited supply of flats near Serangoon MRT Station.
Five-room flats
To meet the demand for larger flats, HDB began constructing five-room units during this period, mainly in point blocks in estates such as Marine Parade. A clear divergence in pricing emerged between mature and non-mature estates. The prices in mature estates ranged from over $400,000 to over $500,000, while prices in non-mature estates were around $300,000. (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
To meet the demand for larger flats, HDB started constructing five-room units during this period, mainly in point blocks in estates such as Marine Parade. A clear divergence in pricing emerged between mature and non-mature estates. For instance, in the case of mature estates, buyers could expect to pay more than $400,000 for a five-room flat. However, in contrast, similar flats in non-mature estates were priced around $300,000. In mature estates, the executive flats were typically priced above $600,000.
Key findings:
Two-room and three-room flats were priced similarly across both mature and non-mature estates.
Three-room and four-room flats in Bukit Timah, the Central Area, Marine Parade and Queenstown consistently stood out with higher