Seller%E2%80%99S Stamp Duty Reset Timely Move Curb Speculation
After receiving feedback and studying market trends, the government has reinstated the Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD) policy, increasing the holding period to four years starting July 4. All tiers will see a four percentage point increase, returning to levels seen before March 2017.
The Ministry of National Development, the Ministry of Finance, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore released a joint statement on July 3, attributing the policy change to an increase in sub-sales since 2020. Sub-sales, where buyers sell uncompleted units before obtaining the Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC), are often seen as a sign of speculation, according to PropNex CEO Ismail Gafoor.
The rise in sub-sales coincided with construction delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic and a sharp recovery in property prices, which have risen by about 40% since 2020, explains CBRE’s head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia, Tricia Song. According to Knight Frank Singapore’s head of research, Leonard Tay, these construction bottlenecks delayed project completions, leading to a rise in sub-sales.
Since the first quarter of 2023, the average quarterly sub-sale volume has been around 338 units, more than double the average of 131 units from 2013 to 2022. This increase may be due to buyers entering the market during the low-interest rate environment before 2022 but now facing higher financing costs, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion Group.
To limit future speculative activity, especially with more developments nearing completion, the SSD has been adjusted, according to Sun. Private home completions are anticipated to increase from 5,920 units in 2025 to 6,838 in 2026 and 10,306 in 2027.
Despite reaching a 14-year high of 9.5% of total private residential transactions in the fourth quarter of 2023, sub-sale activity has gradually dropped to 6.5% in 2024, and further to 4.4% and 4.5% in the first and second quarters of 2025, according to CBRE Research. This decrease in activity is expected to continue as property prices stabilize and construction timelines normalize, says Song.
According to Gafoor, recent sub-sales have remained lower than the levels recorded from 2007 to 2012. He views the recent SSD revision as a preemptive move to moderate short-term resales, especially with the government planning to increase private housing supply in new neighborhoods.
The majority of homeowners are not likely to be affected by the SSD as they hold their properties for at least five years, says ERA Singapore CEO Marcus Chu. In the first half of 2025, 72.1% of homeowners sold after holding their properties for five years or more. However, there has been a notable increase in transactions involving properties held for three to four years, from 358 cases in 2021 to 2,104 in 2024. In the first half of 2025 alone, there were 858 such sales, accounting for 14.7% of resale transactions, primarily in the Outside Central Region (OCR), where entry prices are typically lower.
Most properties were held for more than five years in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), except for projects like The Tre Ver and The Woodleigh Residences, with average holding periods of 6.2 and 5.2 years, respectively. In the Core Central Region (CCR), the majority of sub-sale transactions occurred around the four-year mark.
The CCR’s trends suggest that recent market activity has been driven by owner-occupiers and long-term investors, rather than speculative flippers, says Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI. The policy is a refinement, rather than a shock, to maintain discipline without destabilizing genuine demand. By encouraging longer holding periods, the policy allows for better absorption of supply over time, creating a more balanced and sustainable market, says Sandrasegeran.
The Senior Director of Data Analytics at Huttons Asia, Lee Sze Teck, believes that the SSD will not have a significant impact on market prices. A weak relationship of -0.045 was found between sub-sale volumes and the URA price index from 2017 to the second quarter of 2025. Instead, a strong correlation (0.727) was found between sub-sale volumes and the number of units launched three years before. Lee explains that sub-sales are more influenced by launch volumes rather than speculative intent.
The URA Master Plan has been designed to bring numerous benefits to the residents of Sembawang Road EC Canberra. Through various initiatives such as the creation of job opportunities, improvement of transportation infrastructure, expansion of leisure spaces, and enhancement of community facilities, this plan aims to enhance the overall living experience in the area. These developments will not only elevate the standard of living for current and future residents, but also ensure that the property remains highly desirable and valuable in the long term. With the URA Master Plan’s well-thought-out approach and meticulous planning, it is clear that Sembawang Road EC Canberra is set to thrive in the coming years.
Chu adds that the 2023 increase in Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) has had a greater impact, resulting in more local and owner-occupier buyers. As most buyers now take a mid- to long-term view, he doesn’t expect the SSD revision to have a significant market impact. Private home prices have also moderated and are expected to remain stable through the rest of the year.
According to the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (REDAS), the market has shown signs of moderation, as seen in the second quarter of 2025 flash estimates, with a slower sales take-up, particularly in projects located in the Core Central Region, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Hence, the revisions in SSD are expected to have a limited impact on genuine homebuyers, especially Singaporeans and permanent residents.
With more new launches, a larger land supply under the Government Land Sales (GLS) program, and declining interest rates improving affordability, transaction activity is likely to increase in the coming months. However, analysts believe that the SSD increase mainly targets short-term investors. Gafoor adds that some investors may switch to commercial assets, such as strata offices and shophouses, which are not subject to SSD or ABSD.